Spoke on the May 7th at a "Libertarian Davos" - 27th annual Milken Institute Global Conference in LA on the Russian Resistance and the way out of the war in Ukraine, at the panel with Bill Browder, Dr. Evelyn N. Farkas, Dmitri Alperovitch and Liev Schreiber, under skillfull moderation of Gideon Rose of CFR
Before we begin, I want to ask one question. Guess what is the largest international unit fighting inside Ukrainian army? Russian. Guess which is the second largest international unit fighting in Ukrainian army? Also Russian. Guess which is the third largest international unit fighting for Ukrainian army? No, it's not Russian. It's one from Belarus, but it is also the state which alongside Russia became the source of aggression.
These are the largest units which are fighting inside Ukrainian army, made of people trying to liberate their own land from dictatorships. The true Freedom Fighters. And to complement those at the front there is a growing resistance movement inside Russia, at the home front, which is already approximately seven times larger than the size of units which are inside the AFU. I am proud to be part of these operations.
You probably have heard about some of our accomplishments inside Russia. Almost exactly one year ago there was an attack on the Kremlin Dome, which was made by Russian resistance. Right now, many people are aware of the attacks on Russian oil refineries, which would have been impossible without locals on ground, trying to kick Putin out of this war, while sanctions have failed to do their job.
To answer the question of how to stop the war, we need to understand its origin.
Is it some territorial dispute between Russia and Ukraine? Obviously not. It's way deeper than that.
Putin himself is saying that it's a clash of civilizations (and I obviously think it's more of his personal clash with the free Ukrainians, but still, that's way he sells this conflict to Russians). And in this situation for Ukraine, it turns into an existential conflict.
That's why by treating just consequences of war, by providing money to Ukraine but saying “let’s just stop where we are”, we’re not treating the origin of problem. Because the origin of the problem is Putinism itself. You cannot stop war without destroying it.
Many people asking me in United States how the war can be stopped. And first answer that was most popular back in 2022, that Ukraine would fight back, liberate its territories, get to the internationally recognized borders of 1991. But without removing Putinism from Russia, it would mean just one thing: the front line would now be alongside those borders, but missiles would still be flying. The war would go on.
The only way the conflict can be resolved, is by defeating the aggressor, i.e. – defeating Putin.
And you know what? When people ask me “what your main problem we may help you with”, I say “while my enemy is Putin, but my main problem is actually in Washington DC”. Because whatever our units are trying to do in Russia, we immediately start getting calls “please don't do it, please stop”.
Where are those missiles who are flying back to hit the launchers of missiles that are targeting peaceful Ukrainians civilians? Ahh, I forgot: Ukrainians are denied access to a similar-range missiles… Instead, they have got a powerful, but cheaper tool they produce themselves: drones. But to navigate drones one needs somebody on the ground. And that’s where the Russian resistance can actually make a difference. We are the living substitute for the missiles that the West is not giving to Ukraine.
Last May our drones hit the Kremlin’s Dome. It was a shock to everybody – both in Moscow and in DC. The White House officials started calling President Zelenskyy: “what the heck is going there?” > Zhykh Viktor: A year ago, there was our first major operation on the Russian territory, our guys at last came back home and started fighting on the core Russian territory of Belgorod region last June. We immediately got calls “are you nuts?”.
This year during just another our major operation inside Kursk and Belgorod regions, we even got one very senior U.S official coming to Ukraine, to Kyiv, saying “please stop guys”. How can we win the war if we are not fighting back? It is simply impossible. Staying on the defensive means we will waste the newest assistance package and return to square one, losing even more of our people. The good news is that nobody can prohibit Russians to liberate their own land from the scum that controls it at the moment.
We in Ukraine are really, really thankful for the recent financial aid package from you guys. We now are celebrating, and we are very happy for receiving this 61 billion. But we are also mindful that Russia has already spent hundreds of billions and is not planning to stop.
Many people in the West say that the objective is not to win the war, but the objective is to make Ukraine not lose it. And this approach is exactly what led us into the situation of moving straight into the war of attrition, where Russia’s military spending is several times larger than that of combined West.
Right now, one third of the Russian budget is military oriented. They outspend the combined West in the proportion of 10 to 1. That's the current situation. We altogether will not outspend Russia. And that’s why we cannot win the war of attrition. The time works against us.
The only way we can stop the war is to win it. And do it ASAP. That’s the only way to mitigate the growing risk of military confrontation with the Western nations and in particular Eastern Europeans and Baltic countries. There is no other option. The war needs to be won and we in Ukraine cannot do it without you.
Watching this war play out, it's obviously been such a disaster for Russia. Even though they managed to stay in, even though Putin has managed to keep the fight going, this has turned for Russia as a country to be the catastrophe in terms of the squandering of its future, its reputation, its resources, its population. So why hasn't that produced more domestic dissent inside Russia? Why has there been no follow-up to the Prigozhin’s coup in the Summer 2023? Why has there been a re-stabilization of Putin's regime?
For a very simple reason: because most people are not suicidal. They act rationally. And rationally, they do understand that to go barehanded against all the oppressive apparatus in Russia is suicidal.
What would be the answer to this? Here I think it needs to be a coordinated position of all the Western nations. There is one call which is now loud and clear: “just leave Russia.” And some of our common friends like Garry Kasparov are saying exactly that. Okay, but who then would fight if everybody left?..
The exodus from Russia during these recent two and a half years was more than a million people, most economically active, most socially dynamic, most persistent. They all left. Now, being in the West, they also ask, what can we do?
Most of world’s governments, French, Germans, Americans, they all say - you blog and fight the propaganda, you raise money for Ukraine, you rally, but please do not be engaged in actual fight at home while you are our guests. Because we don't want to be seen as we are assisting any actual resistance. It would be too dangerous for us, you know, escalation and stuff, making the impression we are pursuing regime change in Moscow. So those Russians are getting dissolved in the Western societies, trying to find their personal niches to survive.
There is a great desire on behalf of many exiled Russians (and those who stay, despite the danger) to do something. And when they see things which look to be safe, vetted by everybody, they immediately start to show up. > Zhykh Viktor: Recently there were “elections” to reinstate Vladimir Putin. And we saw huge queues coming to the embassies – people wanted to vote, despite the fact that there was no real candidate. Many just wanted to look around, see the crowds, and confirm that we were still there and alive.
But what was the result? Everybody who was doing this got listed. Now FSB has a renewed list of all the people with anti-war positions. Why would a sane person do it? It was happening only for one reason: because people were encouraged that this is a safe way, this was a way vetted by the politicians around the world, and this was an acceptable way to fight the regime. While the support for the resistance, those at the frontlines or inside Russia is something which one shouldn't be involved in. All this nasty violence, blah…
To my mind, at the D-Day, in the very last day of this regime, we definitely would see millions of people on the streets. Just they would need to see that they are not alone, that there is maybe small, but decisive nucleus of people who can oppress the police, Putin's security forces, make them stay home, run away. And then those who sit home quietly now will be on the streets and squares of the Russian cities.
What Prigozhin's mutiny illustrated very vividly for everyone is that there would be nobody who would defend Putin. All these security guys are very brave when they face unarmed people. When they see somebody with arms they vanish. That was happening all the time in Russia. It was in the 1990s, it was in the early 2000s, that was the way how Soviet Union collapsed. We never saw any of the law enforcement officials when they had faced a real danger.
So that's why I am certain that this is our prime objective right now, is to facilitate the Russian resistance to grow, and to remove all restrictions on Russians (and Ukrainians) helping it. We are not asking you to help, but I am definitely asking to stop creating more obstacles for us, and stop dividing Russian oppositionists into “nice” non-violent grant-receiving sufferers and “dangerous” freedom fighters.
By the way, there are a lot of my comrades in the opposition, who ask “why Ukraine doesn't see us.” They try to recruit some Westerners on their side, as if Ukrainians do not want to work with no Russians at all. But in reality, Ukraine greets everybody who is coming to the country and says, “we are ready to join the fight, and we are ready to help this resistance practically.” Such people are always praised, embraced, assisted, and that's the right way to go for all Russians who claim they are in the opposition.
To conclude, I think that the good news is that most illusions are already gone. And that's not a sign of pessimism. That's a sign of us being more mature and having a better understanding of what we all need to do. And even here on this panel, I heard what I didn't hear a year ago: that the matter of war and peace in Europe is all about Putin and Putinism.
It's not the victory of Ukraine that would trigger the changes in Russia. It's the changes in Russia that would put the end of this war and bring us a strong and sustainable peace. And as soon as we all agree to this and build our strategy on this assumption, we will inevitably win.